What Comes First?

So, do I get the urge to write, and then this shows up in my mailbox...or do I remember that it's that time of year again, and get the itch to write?

http://writersdigest.com/annual

And, does my oven know I have plans for a cooking party on Saturday and it goes out?  Or do I always get the urge to have cooking parties around the same time every year, which is the same time of year that my oven goes out?  (It went out last year just before an event at my house too.)